Friday, March 31, 2006

Frist hints strongly at White House run

WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist says his high-profile job is a "terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible" post for seeking the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

Making it clear that a White House bid is all but certain, Frist said that remaining in the Senate would make a presidential run impossible. Frist plans to step down when his second term ends this year.




"I know the perch not to even consider," he said. "That would be, for me, the United States Senate or being majority leader."

Asked if trying to run a campaign from such a position would be difficult, he replied: "Terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible."

One of possibly a dozen Republicans interested in the GOP nomination, Frist said late Tuesday that once out of the Senate, "you'll see, as you do now, the real Bill Frist, but unencumbered by having responsibilities of leading this body, which results in negotiated positions."

The most recent senator to succeed in his presidential bid was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Another Massachusetts senator, John Kerry, lost to President Bush in 2004, hampered in part by an extensive Senate voting record that opponents used against him.

In 1996, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas realized that trying to pursue the White House from the Senate's top job would be an obstacle. He resigned in June and lost to President Clinton five months later.

Frist, a heart surgeon, was the White House's choice for majority leader after the undoing of Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., whose favorable comments about Strom Thurmond's segregationist past cost him the post in 2002.

Before vaulting into his leadership post, Frist had gained notice as an expert on health care. He was widely credited for offering a reassuring and knowledgeable voice in 2001 when an anthrax-laced letter shut down Congress briefly and closed a Senate building for months of cleaning.

Political analyst Norm Ornstein called the majority leader job a "millstone" around Frist's neck.

"It was the biggest political mistake he made in terms of his political career," said Ornstein, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute. "Before that, Frist was beyond any doubt an enormous star in national politics."

Ornstein said as majority leader, Frist has had to carry water for an increasingly unpopular president and has had to keep other senators in line, a job former majority leader and fellow Tennessean Howard Baker once described as herding cats.

Frist said as soon as his term ends he will return to Nashville.

"I've got it planned out pretty well in terms of once I leave here. I'll go back and live in the house I grew up in," he said.

Re-establishing those roots could be helpful. Tennessee voters picked George Bush over native son Al Gore in 2000 partly because of concerns that Gore was out of touch. Had Gore carried his state, the presidency would have been his.

Frist has made the customary trips of a presidential candidate, traveling to early primary states New Hampshire and Iowa.

He further demonstrated his determination to be a contender earlier this month when he bused dozens of supporters to the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis and emerged as the winner of a straw poll of possible GOP candidates.

Frist still faces political obstacles and may have legal problems.

He is under investigation for possible insider trading after his sale last year of stock in the hospital chain HCA, which his family founded. Frist has said he did nothing wrong.

He acknowledged that he needs to improve his speaking skills, particularly for a campaign.

"I will have to really work hard on it," Frist said. "As a surgeon, I did my best work when people were sound asleep, cutting out their hearts, putting new hearts in.

"And now what I need to do, everybody says, is do your best work and not put people to sleep. That's what I'll work on."

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Eliot Peace:Sizing up 08 SC prospects

COLUMBIA, SC -- Why has Mitt Romney spent so much time in South Carolina recently? Perhaps his own words shed some light: "I don't think it's lost on anyone who is considering a national run that no Republican has been elected president that didn't win the South Carolina primary," said Romney.

Of course, Romney won't admit he's running for president, he's merely "keeping [his] options open." But, he continues, “to keep your options open, you have to get out and be seen and do some work for, particularly the early primary states."

Few who pay attention to the rumor mill in politics doubt that Romney will make an all-out effort to capture the Republican nomination in 2008. He has the national profile: CEO of the Salt Lake City Olympic Games; conservative Republican governor in the nation’s bluest state; and opponent of the Massachusetts same-sex ‘marriage’ debacle, his name is no stranger to the front pages of newspapers nationwide—by the way, on the judges who made the ‘marriage’ decision, he said, “I think they’re wrong.”


Governor Romney has ventured to the Palmetto State several times in the past year, most recently in late February for events in the top three most heavily Republican counties in the state. Townhall.com attended two of the three events and garnered some insight into his chances to capture the First in the South primary in 2008.

Romney, who identified himself as a nuanced pro-choicer in his Senate battle against über-liberal Ted Kennedy in 1996, is a changed man. “I’m pro-life,” he offers, “So, the issue is settled.” Skeptical pundits believe he might have flip-flopped on abortion with the gleam of a 2008 run in his eye and decided to reach out to the GOP base. Certainly, being pro-life is a pre-requisite for achieving victory in South Carolina these days.

Other pundits say that the GOP base, many of them evangelical Christians, might reject a Mormon candidate. However, Romney chalks those assertions up as total bunk. “Most people in South Carolina want a person of faith as their leader. But they don’t care what brand of faith that is,” he said. Surprisingly, he may be onto something.

Dr. Bob Taylor is a dean at Bob Jones University, an evangelical school in Greenville, and generally the political thermometer for the most faithful of South Carolina voters. Political types close to Taylor quote him as not viewing Romney's religion as a crippling issue. As long as Romney maintains his faithfulness to conservative principles, the faithful will accept him.

In one of his speeches, Romney identified three potential problems facing America today: fiscal, military and economic.

On the fiscal front, he identified the challenges, including out of control spending. “We’re spending too much and we’re borrowing too much; it can’t keep on going like this,” the governor said. The budget is too large, government is too irresponsible,” he said.

Spending too much on entitlements threatens the defense budget, which leads right into his second front, the military. While the world is under attack by extremist Muslim terrorists, only one power keeps a radical caliphate from controlling the entire Middle East: the United States. Thus, the American president and the military must ensure that that doesn’t happen.

Leading into his final front, Romney said, “We want to make sure that this country always remains the superpower economically and militarily on this planet. And you can't be a tier one military and a tier two economy." Though the economy is growing so well, he said, we’re losing a lot of high-tech jobs to Asia. Asian high-tech workers are cheaper, say several business executives, and Asia has more ‘knowledge workers.’ China and India have more engineers than the U.S. “Nothing is more vulnerable than entrenched success…let’s avoid becoming the France of the 21st century,” Romney said.

Romney is serious about reforming immigration. However, his focus is not on keeping people out, but keeping them in. Government policies that keep the southern border open to illegal aliens, but keep other borders “absolutely sealed against those people who are the best and brightest in the world,” are ridiculous. He cited stories of PhD candidates receiving fast-track visas to study at his home state MIT but then being forced to return to their native lands upon graduation, taking their knowledge and skills with them. He wants to help them invest their intellectual capital in American industries and American technologies—not China’s.

Romney also offered solutions. First, we must raise the bar in education, especially by increasing funding for science and math. Second, he wants to invest billions more in technology—healthcare, fuel, and power technology. Third, take the burdens off workers and businesses by passing tort reform. Finally, large government overwhelms the playing field and makes it difficult for private enterprises to compete, so shrink it.

One year ago, Romney spoke at another fundraiser in South Carolina. At that time, he was an outsider with little chance of appealing to voters. How much can a year change political realities? This time around, political operatives from around the state were scrambling to meet with him and his staff. Knowledgeable political types whisper that he may have some real traction in South Carolina in 2008.

Scott Malyerck, Executive Director of the South Carolina Republican Party, believes South Carolina voters have been thoroughly impressed with Romney. “His remarks have been well-received by both moderate and conservative Republicans,” said Malyerck in an interview with Townhall.com.

Continuing, Malyerck said, “I think Mitt Romney understands that if he decides to run for president, he will spend many weeks talking to South Carolinians about the future of our country and the challenges that lie ahead. So far, Republicans seem to be impressed with him, like his enthusiasm, and enjoy hearing what he has to say. I suspect we will be seeing a lot of Governor Romney in the future.”

Make no mistake: Romney’s running for president. And there’s no better place to start earning legitimacy than South Carolina.

Thurmond to seek political office

CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) - The youngest son of the late U.S. Senator Strom Thurmond says he will seek the Republican nomination for a seat on the Charleston County Council.

The 30-year-old Paul Thurmond is the first of his father's five children to seek public office. Paul's brother, Strom Jr., was appointed U.S. attorney for South Carolina but resigned the post
about two years ago.

Paul Thurmond left the Charleston County prosecutor's office for private practice last fall. He downplayed any notions he might seek
higher office in the future.

The seat Thurmond is seeking is held by council chairman Leon Stavrinakis, a Democrat whose term expires in December.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

South Carolina 2008:Romney heads South

This is my report from the Greenville County convention of two weeks ago.
2008 is already here. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney spoke at the Greenville County South Carolina GOP convention today. He was articulate and personable and was received very well, even by the most conservative of attendees. The result of this appearance cemented in my mind that Romney will not only be competitive but a force in 2008.
Let's take a look at 2008. Here is the breakdown of all the factions in the GOP primary electorate and the pieces of the pie.

Bush Wing 30% of the Party

Center Right, Moderate Conservative including Conservative "pragmatics" or "realists." This wing contains those that care deeply about politics and polls and base many of their actions on the next election. This wing also contains those that are totally apathetic. They will vote but the package will be more important than ideology. This wing also includes Evangelical Christians who care deeply about social issues but could care less about the size of government.

Reagan Wing 25% of the Party

True die hard conservatives who believe in traditional values, limited govenment and strong national defense. Almost all of the "Christian Right" would be in the Reagan Wing. Doesn't like politics for politic's sake but feels called to get involved, these are purists.

Rockefeller Wing 25% of the Party

Believe in liberal social policies and corporate welfare for big business. They believe in Big Government and quasi-elitist oligarchy.

Buchanan/Taft Wing 10% of the Party

America first, Protectionists, Isolationists, and strongly anti-illegal immigrant and sometimes legal immigrant.

Goldwater Wing 10% of the Party

Die hard conservatives, libertarian leaning, not in Reagan wing because of mistrust of "Christian Right."

With the primary getting started earlier than ever before, John McCain is the clear frontrunner. McCain has been mending old wounds from his go around in 2000 so well that many are worried and have already started "A Stop McCain Movement." The appointed candidate to stop McCain is Senator George Allen of Virginia who is also doing well in early committments and support. I have to wonder how Allen can be the "anti-McCain" for conservatives when indeed Sen. Allen is to the left of McCain on three big 2008 issues. The Medicare bill, No Child Left Behind, and the Right to Life.

Senator Allen also has huge Romney problems. There can also be no doubt watching Allen and Romney speak that if Romney was a Presbyterian from Virginia he would be President right now and if Allen was a Mormon from Massachusetts he would be back in Boston practicing law. Romney has the "package" that Allen lacks. Mitt Romney will hurt Allen.

But McCain also has problems of his own, mainly Rudy Guiliani.

Both Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee will put together great organizations but both of their positions on immigration make them persona nongrata, or unelectable to thirty percent of the electorate right off the bat. I doubt that either of them connects with "small government conservatives" but they will get support from liberal to moderate Christians.

With Huckabee, McCain, Romney and Allen already running around South Carolina, things in 2008 could get interesting. In the end, from Upstate to Low Country I see Guiliani and McCain splitting the Rockefeller wing with some small scraps going to Romney. Senator Bill Frist, Allen, Huckabee, Brownback, and Romney will all compete to the death for the Bush Wing. In the end, Allen will get a "plurality of Bushies" but not enough to carry South Carolina. Senator McCain will pick up a third to a half of the Goldwater wing but his real test will be to see if he can pick up any in the Bush wing.

Congressman Tom Tancredo will win the Paleo wing and "in South Carolina the protectionist wing will go with Allen."

What does that leave????

The Reagan Wing

I do not think anybody already listed can win the Reagan wing. The conservatives in the Reagan wing are done compromising and want a real conservative. The last ten years have been very disappointing for the Reaganites.

Who will they go for???

Speaker Newt Gingrich?

No

Christian Reaganites will remember Newt's infidelity and limited government Reaganites will remember his support for the Medicare bill and his caving on the budget as speaker. If the Speaker runs he will have to compete for votes among the Bush wing further hurting Allen and splitting up the vote.

I feel like the only candidate that can get the Reagan wing to vote in bloc and pick up the Goldwater wing is Indiana Congressman Mike Pence. He isn't well known, but either is Allen or Romney. Pence has what they lack: true Conservatism that will appeal to both fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. Pence already has support Upstate and I'm sure his message will resonate throughout all of South Carolina.

Pence has everything it takes to win the GOP primary. He can communicate, is telegenic, and those who have been paying attention already know he can lead. From what I hear, he gave an amazing speech at the Club For Growth's winter conference in Aventura, FL yesterday. He fires up the base like nobody else. When Reaganites find out about him they will fall in love with him.

Romney will do better than expected in 2008, but Pence will blow the roof off. The only question is, "When is Mr. Pence coming to South Carolina?"