South Carolina Republicans head to the polls
SC Gov.: GOP Primary Will Assess Sanford’s Vulnerability
By Joanna Anderson | 4:15 PM; Jun. 12, 2006 | Email This Article
South Carolina Republican Gov. Mark Sanford will face the first test of his bid for a second term with his primary contest Tuesday against physician Oscar Lovelace. But the contest appears to be at least as much an example of the difficulty long-shot candidates have in gaining political traction as it is a measure of the incumbent’s popularity.
Lovelace is described by Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C., as “a great, charismatic, and articulate, if inexperienced, candidate.” But the first-time candidate’s lack of political experience, coupled with downbeat fundraising numbers, appears to give him little chance of seriously competing to upset Sanford.
Sanford, for his part, has tried to keep Lovelace’s profile low by focusing on a general election contest in which he would face the winner of a three-way Democratic primary between state Sen. Tommy Moore, Florence Mayor Frank Willis and Lawyer C. Dennis Aughtry.
“The governor has been pretty effective at continuing to campaign as if [Lovelace] doesn’t exist,” Huffmon said.
The most attention Lovelace received came on June 7, when a proposed Republican primary debate became a half-hour interview with the challenger on statewide television. Sanford declined to debate his opponent, citing his responsibilities as governor in dealing with bills and state budget measures approved by the legislature.
Lovelace has tried to capitalize on Sanford’s difficulties in getting along with the legislature, even though his fellow Republicans control both chambers. Lovelace, in fact, has focused his campaign on questioning Sanford’s competence.
Sanford’s relationship with the legislature probably hit its nadir in May 2004, when he brought a pair of live pigs into the state Capitol lobby in an effort to promote his argument that the lawmakers were too fond of pork-barrel spending.
The two branches remain at loggerheads. In recent weeks, Sanford has blasted state lawmakers for spending too much, calling their budget a failure at keeping government in check.
Sanford’s battles with the state legislature have led some observers to label him as potentially vulnerable. But according to Christian Grose, a political scientist who follows Southern politics at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn., those battles “have only helped him, with his core supporters in particular.”
“Sanford is likely to cruise to an easy victory in the primary. The only question is just how much will Sanford win by,” said Grose, who added that if Lovelace “garners a substantial amount of the vote, that could be a red flag for Sanford’s chances in November.”
Sanford — who represented a Charleston-based congressional district from 1995 to 2001, when he retired to keep a personal term-limit pledge — reached the midpoint of the campaign year with public support that is neither weak nor overwhelming. A May SurveyUSA poll showed 53 percent of the respondents in conservative-leaning and Republican-trending South Carolina approve of Sanford’s job performance, putting him in a three-way tie for 25th place among the nation’s 50 governors.
Sanford takes credit for creating a business-friendly environment and high job creation. Democrats dispute this, citing a state unemployment rate that is above the national average.
Some South Carolina politics watchers say it’s unclear, though, whether any of the Democratic contenders has emerged as a clear threat to Sanford.
Moore and Willis “have led competent, if somewhat lackluster primary campaigns,” said Grose. “Both initially promised to run positive campaigns, though in the primary campaign’s waning days, the Democratic opponents have started to go negative,” an indication, he said, that perhaps “both candidates feel they have an opportunity to win.”
In recent weeks, Moore and Willis have traded jabs over the airwaves in ads specifically targeting African-American voters, an important element of the Democratic Party’s primary base in a state where blacks make up just less than 30 percent of the population.
Aughtry entered the contest just before the March filing deadline and his paltry fundraising has prevented him from running any ads.
Aughtry did have a chance to present himself in the Democratic debate earlier this month, and focused on the keystone issue of his campaign: legalized gambling. Aughtry has called for allowing casino gambling in South Carolina to raise revenue for health care, subsidized day care, and increased pay for teachers, state employees and law enforcement providers.
Moore and Willis were quick to describe Aughtry’s proposal as flawed. Moore questioned whether gambling money was a reliable source of funding, while Willis expressed concern over whether casinos would be accepted in a state that has a large number of religious conservatives who are hostile to all forms of gambling.
It initially appeared that the Democratic field would be one candidate larger. But former Rep. Ken Holland (1975-83), withdrew from the race not long after announcing in February that he would seek to end his long political hiatus by running for governor.
Turnout on Tuesday is expected to be low. “There is just no overriding or attention- grabbing issue, much less a larger-than-life personality,” noted Huffmon.
CQ rates the general election contest as Republican Favored. Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.
By Joanna Anderson | 4:15 PM; Jun. 12, 2006 | Email This Article
South Carolina Republican Gov. Mark Sanford will face the first test of his bid for a second term with his primary contest Tuesday against physician Oscar Lovelace. But the contest appears to be at least as much an example of the difficulty long-shot candidates have in gaining political traction as it is a measure of the incumbent’s popularity.
Lovelace is described by Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C., as “a great, charismatic, and articulate, if inexperienced, candidate.” But the first-time candidate’s lack of political experience, coupled with downbeat fundraising numbers, appears to give him little chance of seriously competing to upset Sanford.
Sanford, for his part, has tried to keep Lovelace’s profile low by focusing on a general election contest in which he would face the winner of a three-way Democratic primary between state Sen. Tommy Moore, Florence Mayor Frank Willis and Lawyer C. Dennis Aughtry.
“The governor has been pretty effective at continuing to campaign as if [Lovelace] doesn’t exist,” Huffmon said.
The most attention Lovelace received came on June 7, when a proposed Republican primary debate became a half-hour interview with the challenger on statewide television. Sanford declined to debate his opponent, citing his responsibilities as governor in dealing with bills and state budget measures approved by the legislature.
Lovelace has tried to capitalize on Sanford’s difficulties in getting along with the legislature, even though his fellow Republicans control both chambers. Lovelace, in fact, has focused his campaign on questioning Sanford’s competence.
Sanford’s relationship with the legislature probably hit its nadir in May 2004, when he brought a pair of live pigs into the state Capitol lobby in an effort to promote his argument that the lawmakers were too fond of pork-barrel spending.
The two branches remain at loggerheads. In recent weeks, Sanford has blasted state lawmakers for spending too much, calling their budget a failure at keeping government in check.
Sanford’s battles with the state legislature have led some observers to label him as potentially vulnerable. But according to Christian Grose, a political scientist who follows Southern politics at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn., those battles “have only helped him, with his core supporters in particular.”
“Sanford is likely to cruise to an easy victory in the primary. The only question is just how much will Sanford win by,” said Grose, who added that if Lovelace “garners a substantial amount of the vote, that could be a red flag for Sanford’s chances in November.”
Sanford — who represented a Charleston-based congressional district from 1995 to 2001, when he retired to keep a personal term-limit pledge — reached the midpoint of the campaign year with public support that is neither weak nor overwhelming. A May SurveyUSA poll showed 53 percent of the respondents in conservative-leaning and Republican-trending South Carolina approve of Sanford’s job performance, putting him in a three-way tie for 25th place among the nation’s 50 governors.
Sanford takes credit for creating a business-friendly environment and high job creation. Democrats dispute this, citing a state unemployment rate that is above the national average.
Some South Carolina politics watchers say it’s unclear, though, whether any of the Democratic contenders has emerged as a clear threat to Sanford.
Moore and Willis “have led competent, if somewhat lackluster primary campaigns,” said Grose. “Both initially promised to run positive campaigns, though in the primary campaign’s waning days, the Democratic opponents have started to go negative,” an indication, he said, that perhaps “both candidates feel they have an opportunity to win.”
In recent weeks, Moore and Willis have traded jabs over the airwaves in ads specifically targeting African-American voters, an important element of the Democratic Party’s primary base in a state where blacks make up just less than 30 percent of the population.
Aughtry entered the contest just before the March filing deadline and his paltry fundraising has prevented him from running any ads.
Aughtry did have a chance to present himself in the Democratic debate earlier this month, and focused on the keystone issue of his campaign: legalized gambling. Aughtry has called for allowing casino gambling in South Carolina to raise revenue for health care, subsidized day care, and increased pay for teachers, state employees and law enforcement providers.
Moore and Willis were quick to describe Aughtry’s proposal as flawed. Moore questioned whether gambling money was a reliable source of funding, while Willis expressed concern over whether casinos would be accepted in a state that has a large number of religious conservatives who are hostile to all forms of gambling.
It initially appeared that the Democratic field would be one candidate larger. But former Rep. Ken Holland (1975-83), withdrew from the race not long after announcing in February that he would seek to end his long political hiatus by running for governor.
Turnout on Tuesday is expected to be low. “There is just no overriding or attention- grabbing issue, much less a larger-than-life personality,” noted Huffmon.
CQ rates the general election contest as Republican Favored. Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.
posted by SCGOP at 2:31 AM
<< Home