Looking to the Palmetto State
February 2 '06
By Thomas F. Schaller
Published: Thursday, February 2, 2006 9:26 AM EST
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Two years from now, Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants will be scrambling across South Carolina attempting to win their party's 2008 presidential nomination.
Virginians could have a special interest in the Palmetto State's early primary, which may be the proving ground - or graveyard - for two of the state's former governors, Republican George Allen and Democrat Mark Warner. Both men are viewed by an increasing number of political insiders as their party's alternative to the putative frontrunners, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and his New York counterpart, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.
In my next commentary, I'll discuss Warner's chances in South Carolina in 2008. For now, let's look at whether McCain might be tripped up there again, and what that may mean for Allen's presidential aspirations.
Six years ago this month, McCain was riding high in his "Straight Talk Express" on the heady fumes of a 14-point victory over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary. War hero and avuncular maverick, McCain was the media's darling. He was raising gobs of money on the Internet. He had independents and many moderate Democrats giggling like teenage girls at a Jake Gyllenhaal film fest.
He had the "Big Mo."
But when McCain's bus reached South Carolina, there might as well have been road spikes out in front of Pedro's famed "South of the Border" I-95 tourist trap. The GOP's fundamentalist Christian base, with the help of some nasty push-polling, dismantled the bus' engine, removed its tires and put it up on blocks.
Since that time, McCain and Bush have reportedly repaired their relationship, a feat achieved in large part thanks to the Endorser in Chief role McCain assumed during the president's 2004 re-election. Given what the Bush gang did to him in 2000 - whether those phone calls are traceable or not, it's obvious who had the motive - it is sadly curious how quickly the straight-talking McCain transformed from a useful accomplice to an accomplished user.
During a recent visit to Greenville and Spartanburg - two upcountry South Carolina cities in the heart of Bush country - McCain assured locals that Bush went to war based an "over-abundance" of intelligence. Over-abundance? If that's straight-talk, James Frey's "A Million Little Pieces" is a documentary.
McCain did criticize his party for its profligate spending. But he pointed that finger at congressional Republicans rather than at a president who has raised the debt ceiling more times (three) than he's vetoed spending bills (zero). It's unclear from reports whether McCain expressed any public disgust with the White House's torture and wiretapping policies.
McCain's biggest state ally is fellow Sen. Lindsey Graham, who endorsed McCain four years ago and no doubt will again. Graham, along with Gov. Mark Sanford and consultant Richard Quinn, are key figures in the "independent" wing of the South Carolina Republican party.
But the "establishment" wing - headed by newly elected Sen. Jim DeMint and Warren Tompkins, a Bush adviser and former aide to the late Gov. Carroll Campbell - may again determine McCain's fate.
But according to Rod Shealy, a top political GOP operative in the state, McCain cannot count on their support. "He's suspect among the more conservative elements, and appears to be working hard to erase those suspicions," Shealy told me. "But the Bush wing will definitely NOT line up behind him, having more to do with local personalities than McCain himself."
Still, Shealy regards McCain as the front-runner, and stresses that the Bush campaign's decision in 2000 to circumvent state spending limits by forgoing the federal matching fund program was a major factor.
Which brings us to Allen, the junior senator from Virginia whom many insiders view as a potential McCain-slayer.
Allen is young, sharp, southern and doesn't speak "senatorese." But to stop McCain, he will need to apply the Bush formula: Cultivate the idea among the base that McCain is illegitimate; assuage the fears of establishment Republicans that McCain is the party's only hope of holding on to the White House; and raise enough money to be able to spend at will during the primaries.
I have a real hard time seeing Allen stoping McCain.McCain is more conservative than Allen.We need a MIke Pence or Tom Coburn to stop McCain.
By Thomas F. Schaller
Published: Thursday, February 2, 2006 9:26 AM EST
E-mail this story | Print this page
Two years from now, Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants will be scrambling across South Carolina attempting to win their party's 2008 presidential nomination.
Virginians could have a special interest in the Palmetto State's early primary, which may be the proving ground - or graveyard - for two of the state's former governors, Republican George Allen and Democrat Mark Warner. Both men are viewed by an increasing number of political insiders as their party's alternative to the putative frontrunners, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and his New York counterpart, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.
In my next commentary, I'll discuss Warner's chances in South Carolina in 2008. For now, let's look at whether McCain might be tripped up there again, and what that may mean for Allen's presidential aspirations.
Six years ago this month, McCain was riding high in his "Straight Talk Express" on the heady fumes of a 14-point victory over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary. War hero and avuncular maverick, McCain was the media's darling. He was raising gobs of money on the Internet. He had independents and many moderate Democrats giggling like teenage girls at a Jake Gyllenhaal film fest.
He had the "Big Mo."
But when McCain's bus reached South Carolina, there might as well have been road spikes out in front of Pedro's famed "South of the Border" I-95 tourist trap. The GOP's fundamentalist Christian base, with the help of some nasty push-polling, dismantled the bus' engine, removed its tires and put it up on blocks.
Since that time, McCain and Bush have reportedly repaired their relationship, a feat achieved in large part thanks to the Endorser in Chief role McCain assumed during the president's 2004 re-election. Given what the Bush gang did to him in 2000 - whether those phone calls are traceable or not, it's obvious who had the motive - it is sadly curious how quickly the straight-talking McCain transformed from a useful accomplice to an accomplished user.
During a recent visit to Greenville and Spartanburg - two upcountry South Carolina cities in the heart of Bush country - McCain assured locals that Bush went to war based an "over-abundance" of intelligence. Over-abundance? If that's straight-talk, James Frey's "A Million Little Pieces" is a documentary.
McCain did criticize his party for its profligate spending. But he pointed that finger at congressional Republicans rather than at a president who has raised the debt ceiling more times (three) than he's vetoed spending bills (zero). It's unclear from reports whether McCain expressed any public disgust with the White House's torture and wiretapping policies.
McCain's biggest state ally is fellow Sen. Lindsey Graham, who endorsed McCain four years ago and no doubt will again. Graham, along with Gov. Mark Sanford and consultant Richard Quinn, are key figures in the "independent" wing of the South Carolina Republican party.
But the "establishment" wing - headed by newly elected Sen. Jim DeMint and Warren Tompkins, a Bush adviser and former aide to the late Gov. Carroll Campbell - may again determine McCain's fate.
But according to Rod Shealy, a top political GOP operative in the state, McCain cannot count on their support. "He's suspect among the more conservative elements, and appears to be working hard to erase those suspicions," Shealy told me. "But the Bush wing will definitely NOT line up behind him, having more to do with local personalities than McCain himself."
Still, Shealy regards McCain as the front-runner, and stresses that the Bush campaign's decision in 2000 to circumvent state spending limits by forgoing the federal matching fund program was a major factor.
Which brings us to Allen, the junior senator from Virginia whom many insiders view as a potential McCain-slayer.
Allen is young, sharp, southern and doesn't speak "senatorese." But to stop McCain, he will need to apply the Bush formula: Cultivate the idea among the base that McCain is illegitimate; assuage the fears of establishment Republicans that McCain is the party's only hope of holding on to the White House; and raise enough money to be able to spend at will during the primaries.
I have a real hard time seeing Allen stoping McCain.McCain is more conservative than Allen.We need a MIke Pence or Tom Coburn to stop McCain.
posted by SCGOP at 5:05 PM
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