South Carolina 2008:Romney heads South
This is my report from the Greenville County convention of two weeks ago.
2008 is already here. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney spoke at the Greenville County South Carolina GOP convention today. He was articulate and personable and was received very well, even by the most conservative of attendees. The result of this appearance cemented in my mind that Romney will not only be competitive but a force in 2008.
Let's take a look at 2008. Here is the breakdown of all the factions in the GOP primary electorate and the pieces of the pie.
Bush Wing 30% of the Party
Center Right, Moderate Conservative including Conservative "pragmatics" or "realists." This wing contains those that care deeply about politics and polls and base many of their actions on the next election. This wing also contains those that are totally apathetic. They will vote but the package will be more important than ideology. This wing also includes Evangelical Christians who care deeply about social issues but could care less about the size of government.
Reagan Wing 25% of the Party
True die hard conservatives who believe in traditional values, limited govenment and strong national defense. Almost all of the "Christian Right" would be in the Reagan Wing. Doesn't like politics for politic's sake but feels called to get involved, these are purists.
Rockefeller Wing 25% of the Party
Believe in liberal social policies and corporate welfare for big business. They believe in Big Government and quasi-elitist oligarchy.
Buchanan/Taft Wing 10% of the Party
America first, Protectionists, Isolationists, and strongly anti-illegal immigrant and sometimes legal immigrant.
Goldwater Wing 10% of the Party
Die hard conservatives, libertarian leaning, not in Reagan wing because of mistrust of "Christian Right."
With the primary getting started earlier than ever before, John McCain is the clear frontrunner. McCain has been mending old wounds from his go around in 2000 so well that many are worried and have already started "A Stop McCain Movement." The appointed candidate to stop McCain is Senator George Allen of Virginia who is also doing well in early committments and support. I have to wonder how Allen can be the "anti-McCain" for conservatives when indeed Sen. Allen is to the left of McCain on three big 2008 issues. The Medicare bill, No Child Left Behind, and the Right to Life.
Senator Allen also has huge Romney problems. There can also be no doubt watching Allen and Romney speak that if Romney was a Presbyterian from Virginia he would be President right now and if Allen was a Mormon from Massachusetts he would be back in Boston practicing law. Romney has the "package" that Allen lacks. Mitt Romney will hurt Allen.
But McCain also has problems of his own, mainly Rudy Guiliani.
Both Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee will put together great organizations but both of their positions on immigration make them persona nongrata, or unelectable to thirty percent of the electorate right off the bat. I doubt that either of them connects with "small government conservatives" but they will get support from liberal to moderate Christians.
With Huckabee, McCain, Romney and Allen already running around South Carolina, things in 2008 could get interesting. In the end, from Upstate to Low Country I see Guiliani and McCain splitting the Rockefeller wing with some small scraps going to Romney. Senator Bill Frist, Allen, Huckabee, Brownback, and Romney will all compete to the death for the Bush Wing. In the end, Allen will get a "plurality of Bushies" but not enough to carry South Carolina. Senator McCain will pick up a third to a half of the Goldwater wing but his real test will be to see if he can pick up any in the Bush wing.
Congressman Tom Tancredo will win the Paleo wing and "in South Carolina the protectionist wing will go with Allen."
What does that leave????
The Reagan Wing
I do not think anybody already listed can win the Reagan wing. The conservatives in the Reagan wing are done compromising and want a real conservative. The last ten years have been very disappointing for the Reaganites.
Who will they go for???
Speaker Newt Gingrich?
No
Christian Reaganites will remember Newt's infidelity and limited government Reaganites will remember his support for the Medicare bill and his caving on the budget as speaker. If the Speaker runs he will have to compete for votes among the Bush wing further hurting Allen and splitting up the vote.
I feel like the only candidate that can get the Reagan wing to vote in bloc and pick up the Goldwater wing is Indiana Congressman Mike Pence. He isn't well known, but either is Allen or Romney. Pence has what they lack: true Conservatism that will appeal to both fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. Pence already has support Upstate and I'm sure his message will resonate throughout all of South Carolina.
Pence has everything it takes to win the GOP primary. He can communicate, is telegenic, and those who have been paying attention already know he can lead. From what I hear, he gave an amazing speech at the Club For Growth's winter conference in Aventura, FL yesterday. He fires up the base like nobody else. When Reaganites find out about him they will fall in love with him.
Romney will do better than expected in 2008, but Pence will blow the roof off. The only question is, "When is Mr. Pence coming to South Carolina?"
2008 is already here. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney spoke at the Greenville County South Carolina GOP convention today. He was articulate and personable and was received very well, even by the most conservative of attendees. The result of this appearance cemented in my mind that Romney will not only be competitive but a force in 2008.
Let's take a look at 2008. Here is the breakdown of all the factions in the GOP primary electorate and the pieces of the pie.
Bush Wing 30% of the Party
Center Right, Moderate Conservative including Conservative "pragmatics" or "realists." This wing contains those that care deeply about politics and polls and base many of their actions on the next election. This wing also contains those that are totally apathetic. They will vote but the package will be more important than ideology. This wing also includes Evangelical Christians who care deeply about social issues but could care less about the size of government.
Reagan Wing 25% of the Party
True die hard conservatives who believe in traditional values, limited govenment and strong national defense. Almost all of the "Christian Right" would be in the Reagan Wing. Doesn't like politics for politic's sake but feels called to get involved, these are purists.
Rockefeller Wing 25% of the Party
Believe in liberal social policies and corporate welfare for big business. They believe in Big Government and quasi-elitist oligarchy.
Buchanan/Taft Wing 10% of the Party
America first, Protectionists, Isolationists, and strongly anti-illegal immigrant and sometimes legal immigrant.
Goldwater Wing 10% of the Party
Die hard conservatives, libertarian leaning, not in Reagan wing because of mistrust of "Christian Right."
With the primary getting started earlier than ever before, John McCain is the clear frontrunner. McCain has been mending old wounds from his go around in 2000 so well that many are worried and have already started "A Stop McCain Movement." The appointed candidate to stop McCain is Senator George Allen of Virginia who is also doing well in early committments and support. I have to wonder how Allen can be the "anti-McCain" for conservatives when indeed Sen. Allen is to the left of McCain on three big 2008 issues. The Medicare bill, No Child Left Behind, and the Right to Life.
Senator Allen also has huge Romney problems. There can also be no doubt watching Allen and Romney speak that if Romney was a Presbyterian from Virginia he would be President right now and if Allen was a Mormon from Massachusetts he would be back in Boston practicing law. Romney has the "package" that Allen lacks. Mitt Romney will hurt Allen.
But McCain also has problems of his own, mainly Rudy Guiliani.
Both Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee will put together great organizations but both of their positions on immigration make them persona nongrata, or unelectable to thirty percent of the electorate right off the bat. I doubt that either of them connects with "small government conservatives" but they will get support from liberal to moderate Christians.
With Huckabee, McCain, Romney and Allen already running around South Carolina, things in 2008 could get interesting. In the end, from Upstate to Low Country I see Guiliani and McCain splitting the Rockefeller wing with some small scraps going to Romney. Senator Bill Frist, Allen, Huckabee, Brownback, and Romney will all compete to the death for the Bush Wing. In the end, Allen will get a "plurality of Bushies" but not enough to carry South Carolina. Senator McCain will pick up a third to a half of the Goldwater wing but his real test will be to see if he can pick up any in the Bush wing.
Congressman Tom Tancredo will win the Paleo wing and "in South Carolina the protectionist wing will go with Allen."
What does that leave????
The Reagan Wing
I do not think anybody already listed can win the Reagan wing. The conservatives in the Reagan wing are done compromising and want a real conservative. The last ten years have been very disappointing for the Reaganites.
Who will they go for???
Speaker Newt Gingrich?
No
Christian Reaganites will remember Newt's infidelity and limited government Reaganites will remember his support for the Medicare bill and his caving on the budget as speaker. If the Speaker runs he will have to compete for votes among the Bush wing further hurting Allen and splitting up the vote.
I feel like the only candidate that can get the Reagan wing to vote in bloc and pick up the Goldwater wing is Indiana Congressman Mike Pence. He isn't well known, but either is Allen or Romney. Pence has what they lack: true Conservatism that will appeal to both fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. Pence already has support Upstate and I'm sure his message will resonate throughout all of South Carolina.
Pence has everything it takes to win the GOP primary. He can communicate, is telegenic, and those who have been paying attention already know he can lead. From what I hear, he gave an amazing speech at the Club For Growth's winter conference in Aventura, FL yesterday. He fires up the base like nobody else. When Reaganites find out about him they will fall in love with him.
Romney will do better than expected in 2008, but Pence will blow the roof off. The only question is, "When is Mr. Pence coming to South Carolina?"
posted by SCGOP at 7:29 AM
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