Close race to hinge on turnout (Bauer vs Campbell)
Close race to hinge on turnout
By LEE BANDY
lbandy@thestate.com
It’s a coin flip.
That’s about the best way to describe the runoff for lieutenant governor between incumbent Andre Bauer and challenger Mike Campbell.
Anybody can win, says Tim Brett, a Greenville-based consultant supporting Campbell.
The contest is all about identifying supporters and turnout. Whoever has the best voter turnout mechanism will be the victor, Brett said.
Bauer and Campbell exchanged high-profile endorsements last week. First lady Jenny Sanford lined up behind Campbell. Henry Jordan, the Anderson surgeon who finished third in the GOP primary, said he’s voting for Bauer.
The runoff was forced because neither Bauer nor Campbell received more than half the vote. Campbell led the field, capturing 45 percent, followed by Bauer with 37 percent. Jordan received 18 percent.
Campbell ran a strong race, carrying 35 of the state’s 46 counties. He led Bauer by 21,127 votes.
Based on those results, Campbell, son of the late Gov. Carroll Campbell, has been installed as the favorite.
The endorsement of Jenny Sanford raised a lot of eyebrows. It is debatable whether her support will make a difference, but it certainly didn’t erase questions about Campbell’s chances.
Can Campbell get his crowd back to the polls on Tuesday? That’s the bigger question.
South Carolinians have a history of electing the runner-up.
Four years ago, Bauer came in second in a three-candidate primary race for lieutenant governor, trailing state Sen. David Thomas, R-Greenville, by 2 percentage points. Bauer went on to win the runoff.
Tuesday’s primary will be a replay if Campbell’s supporters decide to stay home.
“South Carolinians have a weird history of rejecting front-runners,” observed Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson.
Some recent examples of front-runners losing a runoff: state Sen. Mike Fair, R-Greenville, lost to Jim DeMint in 1998 for the 4th District congressional seat; in 2004, former Gov. David Beasley failed to survive a runoff against DeMint for a U.S. Senate seat.
Turnout on Tuesday is expected to be extremely light. Estimates range from as low as 6 percent to as high as 10 percent.
With voter turnout that low, “Donald Duck could win,” said Greenville’s Brett.
If Campbell gets his crowd back out to vote, he should win. However, in a low turnout election like this one, Bauer has the edge, experts say. His supporters are more intense. Campbell’s backers are more casual about it.
Jordan, who ran a respectable third, had declined to endorse anyone in the runoff. But he changed his mind after Jenny Sanford embraced Campbell.
Jordan thus joined his whole family in backing Bauer, including cutting a radio ad for the lieutenant governor.
In the ad, Jordan said Bauer not only has the right conservative convictions “but the record to back it up.”
Bauer also was getting help from an unexpected source, Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson of Springdale. The congressman, who served in the state Senate with Bauer, has made phone calls on Bauer’s behalf, a move that angered some Republicans who advised Wilson to stay out of the contest.
“That was a very unwise thing for Joe to do,” said Rusty DePass, a longtime Wilson friend and party stalwart.
Francis Marion University professor Neal Thigpen, a Republican activist, said he doesn’t count Bauer out. “He has always been underestimated.”
However, Furman’s Vinson thinks Bauer will lose.
Voters, she said, need something to be passionate about, and she believes a good number are “passionate” about getting rid of Bauer.
By LEE BANDY
lbandy@thestate.com
It’s a coin flip.
That’s about the best way to describe the runoff for lieutenant governor between incumbent Andre Bauer and challenger Mike Campbell.
Anybody can win, says Tim Brett, a Greenville-based consultant supporting Campbell.
The contest is all about identifying supporters and turnout. Whoever has the best voter turnout mechanism will be the victor, Brett said.
Bauer and Campbell exchanged high-profile endorsements last week. First lady Jenny Sanford lined up behind Campbell. Henry Jordan, the Anderson surgeon who finished third in the GOP primary, said he’s voting for Bauer.
The runoff was forced because neither Bauer nor Campbell received more than half the vote. Campbell led the field, capturing 45 percent, followed by Bauer with 37 percent. Jordan received 18 percent.
Campbell ran a strong race, carrying 35 of the state’s 46 counties. He led Bauer by 21,127 votes.
Based on those results, Campbell, son of the late Gov. Carroll Campbell, has been installed as the favorite.
The endorsement of Jenny Sanford raised a lot of eyebrows. It is debatable whether her support will make a difference, but it certainly didn’t erase questions about Campbell’s chances.
Can Campbell get his crowd back to the polls on Tuesday? That’s the bigger question.
South Carolinians have a history of electing the runner-up.
Four years ago, Bauer came in second in a three-candidate primary race for lieutenant governor, trailing state Sen. David Thomas, R-Greenville, by 2 percentage points. Bauer went on to win the runoff.
Tuesday’s primary will be a replay if Campbell’s supporters decide to stay home.
“South Carolinians have a weird history of rejecting front-runners,” observed Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson.
Some recent examples of front-runners losing a runoff: state Sen. Mike Fair, R-Greenville, lost to Jim DeMint in 1998 for the 4th District congressional seat; in 2004, former Gov. David Beasley failed to survive a runoff against DeMint for a U.S. Senate seat.
Turnout on Tuesday is expected to be extremely light. Estimates range from as low as 6 percent to as high as 10 percent.
With voter turnout that low, “Donald Duck could win,” said Greenville’s Brett.
If Campbell gets his crowd back out to vote, he should win. However, in a low turnout election like this one, Bauer has the edge, experts say. His supporters are more intense. Campbell’s backers are more casual about it.
Jordan, who ran a respectable third, had declined to endorse anyone in the runoff. But he changed his mind after Jenny Sanford embraced Campbell.
Jordan thus joined his whole family in backing Bauer, including cutting a radio ad for the lieutenant governor.
In the ad, Jordan said Bauer not only has the right conservative convictions “but the record to back it up.”
Bauer also was getting help from an unexpected source, Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson of Springdale. The congressman, who served in the state Senate with Bauer, has made phone calls on Bauer’s behalf, a move that angered some Republicans who advised Wilson to stay out of the contest.
“That was a very unwise thing for Joe to do,” said Rusty DePass, a longtime Wilson friend and party stalwart.
Francis Marion University professor Neal Thigpen, a Republican activist, said he doesn’t count Bauer out. “He has always been underestimated.”
However, Furman’s Vinson thinks Bauer will lose.
Voters, she said, need something to be passionate about, and she believes a good number are “passionate” about getting rid of Bauer.
posted by SCGOP at 4:14 AM
<< Home